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the world’s population is about to reach a landmark of huge social and economic

importance, when the proportion of the global population over 65 outnumbers children under 5 for

the first time. a new report by the us census bureau shows 1 with enormous

consequences for both rich and poor nations.

the rate of growth will shoot up in the next couple of years. 2 a combination of

the high birth rates after the second world war and more recent improvements in health that are

bringing down death rates at older ages. separate un forecasts predict that the global population

will be more than nine billion by 2050.

the us census bureau was the first to sound 3 its latest forecasts warn

governments and international bodies that this change in population structure will bring widespread

challenges at every level of human organization, starting with the structure of the family,

as people live longer. this will in turn place new burdens on careers and social

services providers, 5 for health services and pensions systems.

“people are living longer and, in some parts of the world, healthier lives,” the authors

conclude. “this represents one of the greatest achievements of the last century but also a significant

challenge population.”

ageing will put pressure on societies at all levels. one way of measuring that is to look at

the older dependency ratio, 7 that must be supported by them. the odr is the number

of people aged 65 and over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64. it varies widely, from just six in

kenya to 33 in italy and japan. the uk has an odr of 26, and the us has 21.​